In an environment where threats are increasingly numerous, inexpensive, and persistent, true superiority may lie in knowing when not to use the most expensive missile in the arsenal as a countermeasure.
For decades, military superiority has been based on the development of increasingly advanced, precise, and technologically complex systems. However, recent conflicts — and especially the war in Ukraine — are highlighting an uncomfortable reality for many armed forces: Not all threats justify the use of high-cost ammunition.. In today's battlefield, simple, cheap, and mass-produced threats are proliferating, capable of saturating defence systems designed for very different scenarios. These are usually relatively rudimentary platforms, with limited capabilities, but with A key advantage: its unit cost is extremely low, which allows its mass use as a weapon of attrition.
The problem arises when these low-cost threats are confronted with Air defence systems designed to intercept high-value targets, such as cruise missiles or manned aircraft. In many cases, a drone that costs just a few thousand euros is neutralised by interceptor missiles that can cost hundreds of thousands or even millions of euros per unit. This the associated operating costs must be addedflight hours for fighters, fuel consumption, maintenance, wear and tear on critical platforms and, in general, constant pressure on already strained logistics chains. The result is an economically unsustainable asymmetry in the medium and long term.. Although from a tactical point of view the interception is a success, from a strategic perspective the cost-effectiveness is clearly unfavourable and in a prolonged conflict, that equation ends up having real operational consequences.
This scenario is forcing a rethink of one of the fundamental principles of defence system design: the suitability between the cost of the threat and the cost of the countermeasure. It's not about abandoning advanced systems —which remain indispensable against high-level threats— but about complement them with simpler, scalable, and economically sustainable solutions. It is becoming increasingly evident that the immediate future of arms development will largely hinge on effective, low-cost munitions capable of countering equally cheap threats deployed in large numbers. We are talking about simple interceptors, short-range defence systems, electronics-based solutions, directed energy, adapted artillery, or even defensive UAS specifically designed for low-cost air denial missions.
Meanwhile, unmanned systems are proving to be a key factor not only in attack, but also in defence. UAS dedicated to threat detection, identification, and neutralisation can significantly reduce the need to deploy high-value manned platforms on low-level interception missions. Again, lThe key is not only technical efficacy, but the optimisation of the total cost of the operation. Conflicts like the one in Ukraine are acting as an accelerator for trends that have been discernible for years. Armed forces wishing to maintain their deterrence and response capabilities will need to balance sophistication and economy, combining high-end systems with cost-effective solutions that allow for sustained operations over time.
This paradigm shift affects not only weapons design but also how operations are planned, doctrines structured, and procurement programmes conceived. The question is no longer solely which system is the most advanced, but Which system allows for effective defence without depleting critical resources?. In this context, innovation will not always come from extremely complex disruptive technologies, but from clever engineering, efficient integration of existing systems, and a deep understanding of the actual operating environment. ability to adapt solutions to specific scenarios, keeping costs under control, will be a key differentiating factor in the coming years because, in an environment where threats are increasingly numerous, cheap and persistent, true superiority may lie in knowing when not to use the most expensive missile in the arsenal.
Key topics in this post: see skills in Defence systems.
