The year 2024 marked a significant milestone for global air transport. With more than 9.45 billion passengers carried and an average load factor of 83.5%, the industry has far surpassed the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. This recovery has been driven by the coexistence of traditional and low-cost models, which cater to an increasingly diverse and segmented market.
Air traffic is currently characterised by stable and growing demand. Year-on-year growth between 2023 and 2024 was 10.4%, reinforcing a positive trajectory. The regions with the highest passenger volumes were Asia-Pacific (3.2 billion), Europe (2.5 billion) and North America (2.3 billion).
Purpose of travel is a key factor in passenger segmentation:
Tourism accounts for 60–70% of international air traffic. These passengers mainly travel on short- and medium-haul point-to-point routes, and are the segment that is most loyal – and most sensitive – to low-cost fares. The expansion of low-cost long-haul routes has further improved global accessibility.
Passengers flying for work or business, on the other hand, account for 30% to 40% of global traffic. They tend to fly with traditional carriers offering premium services and business class, and typically favour connecting routes via hubs.
There has been a noteworthy growth in the low-cost segment, which already accounts for almost 30% of global traffic, with 2.8 billion passengers. This trend is largely driven by greater price sensitivity among passengers, especially in the leisure sector and in emerging markets. As in previous years, the Asia-Pacific region leads this segment (33.5%), followed by Europe (26.7%) and North America (23%). Regions with high levels of low-cost uptake typically share these three features: strong economies, mass tourism, and extensive domestic networks.
How might air travel evolve?
Tomando como base datos de la IATA, ACI y algunos análisis sectoriales, vamos a enumerar algunos factores clave que impactarán la evolución del tráfico aéreo a medio plazo.
Sustained growth in demand, with passenger numbers expected to rise by 4% to 6% annually, reaching between 10.2 and 10.5 billion by 2026. The 2024 figures and the sustained momentum of recent years highlight the strong growth in tourism, regional travel, and traffic in emerging markets.
Consolidation of low-cost airlines, which are expected to continue expanding, particularly in medium- and long-haul markets, supported by the introduction of more efficient aircraft such as the A321XLR and Boeing 737 MAX. Their global market share could reach between 35% and 38% by 2026.
Expansion in emerging regions, where Asia-Pacific is set to remain the leading market, with strong growth in India and Southeast Asia. Africa and Latin America are expected to gain relevance, driven by improved infrastructure and liberalisation of air markets.
Passenger segmentation will play a central role, with growth in the ‘bleisure’ (business + leisure) segment, which will see airlines designing more hybrid products that combine affordable fares and flexible premium options. These options are expected to represent just over 20% of the offering within the next couple of years.
The transformation of business travel remains evident in the post-pandemic landscape. The latest estimates suggest that up to 30% of corporate travel may never return to pre-COVID levels. Therefore, the focus will be on high-value services on key routes, and more efficient business class products.
Sustainability and environmental regulation are becoming increasingly important. The European Union, for instance, is aiming to lead the implementation of several measures to reduce emissions from air transport, including the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), airspace optimisation, and the inclusion of aviation in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), all within its broader climate targets for 2030 and 2050. This will impact the entire sector.
Technology and digitalisation in the sector will no longer be viewed as a novelty but rather an essential part of the industry operations. Automation, artificial intelligence, biometrics and in-flight connectivity will be key differentiators. The uniqueness of the passenger experience will be personalised through digital platforms and on-demand services.
In summary, over the next two years, we are set to see global air travel on course for a more segmented, green and digitally-driven future. The low-cost model will continue to expand, while traditional carriers will need to adapt to evolving passenger expectations. The key to success will lie in a combination of personalised travel experiences, operational efficiency, and a commitment to sustainability.
