All indications are that we are leaving the health crisis behind us, while remaining cautious about a possible resurgence. For some time to come, until we see that Covid-19 has ceased to be a major global threat, we will continue to experience the aftermath reflected in the preventive measures of contagion, especially those related to social distancing. No doubt about it, air traffic is recoveringBut it will take some time before we return to the freedom of the past.
In the aviation sector, if there are a clear loser is the airlines. No one has suffered the impact of the pandemic as they have. On the other hand, we must be aware that in order to recover the way of life we used to know, tourism, globalisation of family, friends and business, few things are as important as regaining air mobility without fear or restrictions. That is why governments, or the European Union, must putting the focus on the survival and "health" of our airlines. Without them, any recovery will be slower.
The aviation sector, strategic for economic and social recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, needs to recover as soon as possible. The aviation industry will need more time. The key may lie in accelerating the renewal of the air fleet and thereby drastically reducing the overall carbon footprint of air transport.
In the same field of aviation, the next loser is the aerospace industryThe airline industry, which develops and manufactures new and ever more efficient aircraft so that airlines can carry out their plans to cover more routes and transport more people. For the industry it is not enough for airlines to get back in businessIn addition, the industry needs them to regain their ambitions.
But there is a big difference between the two aviation sectors, which are themselves so closely related. When the pandemic is history, airlines will return to normality. They will do better or worse depending on how they emerge from this terrible crisis, and it is certain that, if world GDP per capita falls, their activity will decline, because the growth of air transport and global wealth are highly correlated..
For its part, difficult years ahead for the aviation industry to return to the situation it enjoyed before the pandemic. Until the reality of the airlines, who are its customers, is clear and cancelled orders or aircraft that were not picked up have been absorbed, the industry will have to maintain a lower production volume. This means slowing down their entire supply chain.and put it in danger of disappearing.
Between Airbus and Boeing, the reduction in production is now around 35 or 40% and it may well take more than three years to absorb the situation and regain the production rate of earlier this year. Major global manufacturers have to digest the reality of the portfolio they now hold. and wait for airlines to regain the ambition to order new aircraft.
On the other hand, the pandemic has caused us to put aside the major challenge that the air transport sector has been facing for more than a decade, which is the emission reductions and thus a reduced impact on climate change.. If Covid has been the perfect example of a black swan, Climate Change is still an elephant in the room. It is there, it moves little, and we try to carry on with our work, hoping that it will stay still. For Covid no one was prepared, for Climate Change we are all responsible for preventing it..
We have a strategic opportunity to combine the two. On the one hand, pulling the aerospace industry out of the doldrumsThe EU's role in the global economy is not only to prevent the loss of thousands of jobs and wealth for the leading nations, but also to ensure that the EU does not lose the jobs and wealth of the leading nations, respond more quickly and effectively to the necessary reduction of emissions of aircraft operated by airlines.
In the current air transport standstill, and in the forthcoming gradual recovery, the oldest fleet will be the last to take flight. This is logical, because their operating costs are higher and the comfort they offer to passengers is lower.
In addition, the new generation of aircraft reduces emissions by more than 20% emissions compared to the aircraft it replaces. A quick way to reduce emissions will therefore be to accelerate fleet modernisation.
Let us in Europe look for win-win as a way of out of this terrible and, foreseeably, long-lasting industrial crisis, while pushing towards a cleaner and more efficient industry. The exponent of which, among others, will be the reduction of the carbon footprint of aviation as a whole.
As I said at the outset, airlines must be helped if society as a whole is to recover more quickly from this crisis, but let us make aid conditional on them keeping their commitments to new aircraft, favouring the modernisation of their fleets and grounding older aircraft. Emission reductions could be much faster than anticipated. At the same time, the aircraft manufacturing industry will see some of its production recovered, saving human and financial capital to be able to continue innovating for a future aviation with an even smaller environmental footprint.
Let's make our skies behind the Covid cleaner, while keeping alive a strategic industry that generates highly skilled jobs which provides technological independence and global leadership for Europe.
